The RAISE act’s bad logic

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Senator Tom Cotton’s proposed RAISE Act to cap the number of refugees allowed into the United States relies upon some dubious logic. But on one point, I agree. Limiting the number of people into the country, whether they are fleeing or immigrating, would shrink the labor pool and drive up wages.

At first, I was skeptical. Since July of last year, properties owned by Donald Trump requested 255 H2-B visas for foreign workers, most for Mar-A-Lago, the president’s Florida resort and second home. Since 2010, at Mar-A-Lago alone, over 300 U.S. citizens have applied to work at Mar-A-Lago. Only 17 were hired. The reason? Explaining the hires during a debate, then-candidate Trump said, "These are laws. These are regulations. These are rules. We're allowed to do it. And frankly, because of the devaluations that other countries — the monetary devaluations that other countries are constantly doing and brilliantly doing against us, it's very, very hard for our companies in this country, in our country, to compete. So I will take advantage of it; they're the laws. But I'm the one that knows how to change it. Nobody else on this dais knows how to change it like I do, believe me."

Couple that with the fact H2-B visas do not allow workers to change jobs and are paid either the minimum or prevailing wage and it’s clear – foreign workers repress wage growth. They are paid less.

The president wasn’t gaming the system. It’s the way the system works. The RAISE act won’t affect the H2-B program or work visas a bit. Only green card recipients (legal immigrants) fall under the RAISE proposals.

Green, red or otherwise, visa or not, RAISE is logical. We should all embrace every measure, RAISE or reform, any proposal to limit legal and illegal immigration as much as possible is a good thing. We’d all be doing better. Right?

Not so fast.

The 2014 Senate immigration bill that passed (only to die in the House), relied upon more precise math than Senator Cotton’s RAISE. Relying upon Congressional Budget Office numbers, the Senate found that reforming immigration would bring 336,000 to 470,000 entrepreneurs into the economy. Since they employ an average of 11 employees, 3.7 million to 5.2 million jobs would be created.

The highly regarded PEW Research Center found, that same year, 11.7 million immigrants from Mexico were living in the U.S., 5.5 million of them illegally. While no statistics specific to Latino immigrants was given, another PEW study found overall, 41% of illegal immigrants worked on farms or construction. A crack-down on workforces in either would have negative consequences. In California’s Central Valley, where more than half the nation’s vegetables, fruits and nuts are produced, it would be devastating. Minus the workforce a quota or Draconian enforcement action would cause, it’s quite possible food would be left to rot in the fields. These are not jobs taken from Americans praying for the chance to bake in the sun jumping from one seasonal crop to the next. In fact, last week, down the road in Palacios, the paper’s lead story reported the local economy faced a crisis. The shrimping industry cannot find enough workforce because all the H-2B visas allotted for “non-agricultural” employers have been taken. There’s a local unemployed American workforce. They don’t want the jobs. Most likely, the number of shrimp boats along the Gulf Coast will be halved this year.

One statistic startled me. Of the 11.7 immigrants from Mexico who crossed the border illegally, 78 percent have remained in this country for over a decade. The societal costs of all this increased enforcement in incalculable. There’s no math to figure the effects it will have on friends, families, schools, churches or employers.

Senator Cotton’s aim wasn’t at illegal immigration with his RAISE act. It seeks only to reduce the number of legal immigrants allowed into the country; a small enough number he wants to reduce even more. It’s the mathematical logic he employs that concerns me. It won’t raise the wages of 50,000 Americans in one-to-one fashion. Applying that same logic to the broader group, illegal immigrants included, it’s not only misguided – its effect is alarming. If you don’t want to do the math, ask a shrimp boat captain. They’ve figured it out.

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